AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence
Abdullah Mamun, Diane J. Cook, Hassan Ghasemzadeh
2025-03-21
Summary
This paper is about creating a system that can predict if someone will remember to take their medication, using information from their phone and past habits.
What's the problem?
People not taking their medicine is a big problem for their health and costs a lot of money, and it's hard to know when someone might forget.
What's the solution?
The researchers made a system called AIMI that uses phone data and medication history to guess when someone might forget their meds, so they can get a reminder.
Why it matters?
This work matters because it could help people stay healthier by reminding them to take their medicine, and it could save money on healthcare costs.
Abstract
Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.